Defense: States that John Kerry won

State	Poll	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Connecticut	Rasmussen 5/29	47	44	54	44
Michigan	Rasmussen 6/9	45	42	51	48
Minnesota	Rasmussen 6/11	52	39	51	48
New Hampshire	Rasmussen 5/21	48	43	50	49
New Jersey	Quinnipiac 6/5-6/8	45	39	53	46
Oregon	Rasmussen 6/11	46	38	52	48
Pennsylvania	Rasmussen 5/21	45	43	51	49
Wisconsin	Rasmussen 6/5	45	43	50	49

Note: The U. of Wisconsin poll has Obama up 50-37, but I found the question order to be a little biased. They asked Obama's favorables, then Bush's favorables, then McCain's favorables, then Obama vs. McCain. I find this order to be questionable.

I added New Jersey to the list, the siren state that lures Republican hopes and then dashes them against the rocks. The GOP always does about 5% worse than the polls would have them believe in New Jersey. Last week we had new polls in Minnesota, where Obama's prior 5 point lead swells to 15, and Oregon, where the lead narrows slightly from 10 to 8. Connecticut and New Jersey are states where Obama leads by less than Kerry did, but neither state worries me at all.

Red-to-Blue: States that John Kerry lost where Obama is leading or tied

State	Poll	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Colorado	Rasmussen 5/19	48	42	47	52
Iowa	Rasmussen 6/10	45	38	49	50
Missouri	Rasmussen 6/3	43	42	46	53
New Mexico	SUSA 5/16-5/18	44	44	49	50
Ohio	SUSA 5/16-5/18	48	39	49	51
Virginia	SUSA 5/16-5/18	49	42	48	51

No new polls here. A Rasmussen New Mexico poll from around the same period has Obama up by 9. However, a Quinnipiac Ohio poll from in a similar timeframe has McCain up by 4. How OH and NM poll post-Clinton endorsement remains to be seen. I expect to see new Rasmussen polls this week in New Mexico, Virginia, and Ohio; perhaps as soon as this afternoon.

Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain

State	Poll	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Florida	Quinnipiac 5/13-5/20	41	45	47	52
Mississippi	Rasmussen 5/27	44	50	40	60
Nevada	Mason-Dixon 6/9-6/11	42	44	48	51
North Carolina	Rasmussen 6/10	43	45	44	56
North Dakota	Dakota Wesleyan U. 3/24-4/3	38	44	36	63

I almost added Kansas to this section when a Cooper & Secrest poll showed Obama trailing by only 4, but today's Rasmussen poll has Obama down by 10 there. The new poll here is Nevada, where Obama closes from 6 to 2. That officially means that Obama is polling better than Kerry's results in all of these states. However, I don't really trust the North Dakota poll.

No change in the Electoral Vote Count since last week. If we assume Obama wins New Mexico, the Electoral Vote tally stands at Obama 317, McCain 221.

Poll Which of these states will Obama win? (choose all that apply) Iowa New Mexico Colorado Virginia Ohio Missouri Nevada North Carolina Florida Mississippi Votes: 59 Results : Vote Link : Polls