cross-posted at Election Inspection

Swing State Polls, below the flip, divided into 3 catgories:

Defense: States Kerry won (CT, MI, MN, NH, NJ, OR, PA, WI)

Red-to-Blue: States Kerry lost where Obama is winning or tied (CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA)

Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain (AK, GA, FL, MS, NV, NC, ND)

The summary: Obama 317, McCain 221 if Obama wins Ohio; Obama 297, McCain 241 if Obama loses Ohio.

cross-posted at Election Inspection

Swing State Polls, below the flip, divided into 3 catgories:

Defense: States Kerry won (CT, MI, MN, NH, NJ, OR, PA, WI)
Red-to-Blue: States Kerry lost where Obama is winning or tied (CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA)
Frontiers: States where Obama is close behind McCain (FL, MS, NV, NC, ND)

The summary: Obama 317, McCain 221.

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	DemCandidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 5/27	Figures	29	Sessions	62
AK	Stevens	Research 2000 5/12-5/14	Begich	48	Stevens	43
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 5/19	Mark Udall	47	Schaffer	41
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Vernon Jones	29	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Dale Cardwell	27	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Rand Knight	25	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Josh Lanier	24	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ID	Craig	Robinson Research 11/26-12/12	LaRocco	27	Risch	46
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	57	George Eichorn	28
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	58	Steve Rathje	23
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	59	Christopher Reed	20
KS	Pat Roberts	Research 2000 6/2-6/4	Slattery	38	Roberts	50
KY	McConnell	Rasmussen 5/22	Bruce Lunsford	49	McConnell	44
LA	Landrieu	Rasmussen 5/28	Landrieu	47	Kennedy	44
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 5/14	Allen	42	Collins	52
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jim Ogonowski	29
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jeff Beatty	25
MI	Levin	Rasmussen 5/7	Levin	54	Hoogendyk	37
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 5/22	Franken	45	Coleman	47
MS-A	Cochran	Rasmussen 5/27	Fleming	35	Cochran	58
MS-B	Wicker	Rasmussen 5/27	Musgrove	47	Wicker	46
MT	Baucus	Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21	Baucus	65	Lange	26
MT	Baucus	Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21	Baucus	61	Bushman	26
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 5/19-5/21	Kleeb	31	Johanns	58
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 5/20	Shaheen	50	Sununu	43
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 3/27	Lautenberg	54	Joe Pennacchio	36
NJ	Lautenberg	Rasmussen 3/27	Lautenberg	54	Murray Sabrin	35
NM	Domenici	SUSA 5/30-6/1	Tom Udall	60	Heather Wilson	36
NM	Domenici	SUSA 5/30-6/1	Tom Udall	60	Steve Pearce	35
NC	Dole	PPP 5/28-5/29	Kay Hagan	39	Dole	47
OK	Inhofe	Soonerpoll.com 12/16-12/19	Andrew Rice	19	Inhofe	60
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 5/7	Jeff Merkley	42	Smith	45
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
TX	Cornyn	Baselice & Associates (R) 5/20-5/25	Noriega	33	Cornyn	49
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 5/5-5/7	Noriega	44	Cornyn	48
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 5/8	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	37

Analysis below the flip.

Seriously?

cross-posted from Big Orange and Election Inspection

Rep. Steve LaTourette of Ohio is scum, but his opponent, Bill O'Neill is a Vietnam veteran we can really get behind. Summary of this Diary:

1. Support Bill O'Neill, winner of Election Inspection's Memorial Day Donor Bomb contest to support a veteran running for Congress.

2. Why O'Neill is good for Veterans, Labor, Civil Rights, Small Business, and restoring the rule of law.
   
3. The sordid tale of GOP Rep. Steve LaTourette, a phony moderate, a corrupt scumbag who is literally in bed with his lobbyist, and a toothless ethics chair who made a mockery of the job and was still yanked by Tom DeLay for the smallest ounce of insubordination.

Please donate to Bill O'Neill for Memorial Day! Let's give our veterans and the families of the fallen a congress that understands them and will vote to end the Iraq War.

So, after an earlier diary reporting 8.6%, users on DailyKos found an error in the Lancaster County reporting of about 13,000 votes. I called up the Pennsylvania Department of State, and they promised to investigate and call me back. Two minutes later, they called me back, thanked me, and fixed the error.

The site now reports with 99.44%:
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)  
 1,237,696 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)  
 1,029,672 45.4%

In other words, 9.2%. Still single digits, and still doesn't round up to 10. So I was off by 1.2% and 1 delegate (so far). Not bad!

Hat tip to InsultComicDog on DKos.

cross-posted from Election Inspection.

Official Pennsylvania Elections Results with 99.09% reporting.

Candidate	%	Votes	Delegates
Clinton	54.3	1,235,067	80
Obama	45.7	1,041,366	66

That's Clinton by 8.6%. A single-digit win. I predicted Clinton would win by 8% and gain 12 delegates. So far, I'm within 1% and 1 delegate. I'd say that's a pretty good prediction, wouldn't you? There's still another 12 delegates to be calculated.

Oh, but CNN and the media are still rounding 54.3 up to 55%. Interesting.

McCain only won 72.7% of the PA GOP vote. That's pretty weak don't you think?

And finally, congratulations to Democrat Travis Childers, who goes on to a runoff in MS-01 as the frontrunner. He missed winning the seat outright by 0.6%.

cross posted from Election Inspection

cross-posted from Election Inspection

After seeing the final Zogby numbers show undecideds breaking for Clinton, I am revising my prediction from yesterday.

Clinton will win by 4%-13%, with a median of 8%, and gain 12 delegates.

Polls and analysis below the flip.